So, I Found My Strategy With A High Probability Success Rate.

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Exciting News: Paid Subscriptions Have Launched! 🚀

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🗣 Stock Market Today: US Two-Year Yield Falls to Lowest Since 2022 Ahead of CPI Report

US Treasuries rallied, pushing the two-year yield to 3.55%, its lowest level since September 2022, ahead of a critical inflation report expected to show a decrease in US consumer price growth from 2.9% in July to 2.5% in August. This drop in yields comes amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates at its upcoming meeting on September 18, although the probability of a half-point cut remains at around 20%. Strategists like Evelyne Gomez-Liechti suggest that unless there is a downside surprise in the inflation data, the market may consolidate at current levels.

The rally in Treasuries has been driven by signs of a cooling labor market and inflation, supporting expectations of easier monetary policy. Jerome Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole in August also strengthened the belief that rate cuts are imminent. Currently, money markets are pricing in 110 basis points of cuts by year-end and 250 basis points over the next 12 months, which could lower the upper bound of the Fed funds rate to 3%. Meanwhile, the market is also monitoring the impact of the first US presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, which focused on economic issues and US-China relations, though market reactions have been muted so far.

Stay informed with today's rundown:

Today, we will dive into “Backtest Results For A Simple "Buy the Dip" Strategy” 👇

Just a backstory on why I had to find something that works for me. I had two funded accounts, which were doing very well. I loss both from over trading without getting any payouts. It forced me to find a setup I can use everyday with a high probability success rate.

This setup seems to be +80% so far. It’s been backtested last year, and has had a high-probability success rate this month as well.

If You Missed:

What I do:

  1. I trade on the 5-Minute Chart

  2. I wait for the Macro Time range 09:50–10:10 AM EST to finish.

  3. Once the 10:10 candle completes, I wait for the long or short bias

  4. Once there is a retracement to the level I want to enter, I place my order with a profit target of Target #1

  5. No matter what, I set the stop loss and once my position is in the green I set a trail stop 1 tick above my break even to lock any profit.

When did this strategy not work for me:

  1. If NYSE is closed (such as on MLK), since the volume was low and the trading day was half. It failed on NQ but ES hit its target

  2. If there is divergence between NQ and ES, I tend to pick the stronger ticker towards the bias.

  3. I would say, since I wait for an Optimal Trade Entry (such as a retracement / fib level, etc) I have made profit even though the targets did not hit. The reason is because I set the trailing stop once I am in profit.

When do I enter a position earlier:

  1. If there is a high-probability setup that appears during the Macro Bullet’s time range (09:50–10:10 AM EST), I will enter those all the time.

Here is a screenshot from today’s ES and NQ.

In the screenshots above, the bias is long, with Target #1 and #2 hitting. Please let me know your thoughts!

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